Nearly half of the 74 people who attended UMRA’s Holiday Party on December 17 participated in a 10-question predictions quiz. Twenty-one people put their names on the form and at least one person filled out the form twice, with the same name but with different answers. (There was no rule against voting more than once, though there probably should have been).

The results show a close call on the stock market and unemployment, with a small majority predicting a downturn in the S&P 500 and most people predicting that unemployment will rise but not a lot. The predictions for the Outback Bowl football game show an equally divided prediction, with a sense that if the Gophers win it will not be by much. On men’s and women’s basketball, there was decided optimism about the women and decided concern about the men.

With respect to our questions on Democratic and Republican nominees, most expected Biden to be the Democratic presidential nominee and Klobuchar to be the VP nominee, though there were a few votes for others in both categories. On the Republican side, the expectation was Trump for president and Pence for VP. There were two protest votes for Oompa Loompa.

Our movie predictions were meager, with the most votes going to The Irishman but only seven. The ideal retirement age question drew many answers, with 60 and 70 being predominate. 

Finally, the three most popular Minnesota apples question was more difficult to answer. We consulted with Jim Luby, one of the University’s apple inventing legends, who informed us that no organization collects this information in Minnesota. His best guess was Honeycrisp, Haralson and SweeTango®, and therefore that is the “official” answer. 

2020 Predictions Quiz, Qs & As

What will the S&P 500 Index be on May 1, 2020? (18 days before the last meeting of UMRA’s 2019­–20 program year)  
Up (19 votes), down (15)
Predictions ranged from a high of 4,329 to a low of 2,450. At the extremes, the bulls predicted a 35 percent rise and the bears predicted a 23 percent drop. Most predictions were for much smaller moves, both up and down.

What will the unemployment rate be on May 1, 2020? 
Above current rate (25 votes), below (8)
Predictions ranged from 4.75 to 3.0 percent

Will the Gophers football team defeat the Auburn Tigers in the Outback Bowl on January 1? What will the score be?
Gophers win (18 votes), Tigers win (18)
The score ranged from a 24-0 Gophers victory to a 48-10 Tigers win, but most predicted a close game.

Who will be the Democratic nominees in 2020?
President: Biden (20 votes), Bloomberg (7), Klobuchar (3), Warren (1), Booker (1)
Vice president: Klobuchar (15), Buttigieg (6), Warren (4), Biden (3), Harris (2), Tracy Abrams (1), and 1 Cory Booker (1)

Who will be the Republican nominees in 2020?
President: Trump (31 votes), Oompa Loompa – (2)
Vice president: Pence (24), Haley (2), Kasich (1)

Will the Gophers women’s basketball team make the 2020 NCAA Tournament? 
Yes (27), No (6) 

Will the Gophers men’s basketball team make the 2020 NCAA Tournament?
Yes (14), No (23)

What film will win the “Best Picture” Oscar at the 2020 Academy Awards? 
1. The Irishman – 7 votes
2. CATS – 4 votes (our survey was before the movie was available publicly) 
3. Knives Out – 3 votes
4. Rocketman, Avengers: End Game, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (also not publicly available at the time of our survey) – 1 vote each

What is the best age to retire?  
60 (11 votes), 65 (5), 70 (11), 75 (1).
Other: 55, 63, 63½, and 68.

Without Googling the answer, name the three most popular apple varieties developed at the University. 
1. Honeycrisp
2. SweeTango®
3. First Kiss and Zestar!® 
Honorable mention: Our membership showed an amazing familiarity with U of M apples, with guesses including Haralson, Prairie Spy, and Snow Sweet®. Honeycrisp is the most widely known Minnesota apple, according to the website Minnesota Hardy.

 —Bill Donohue, president