The following article summarizes the original event which is listed below the summary.
A master class on the 2020 elections
A map from The New York Times showing the current partisan divide in the United States by population density.
All-star election analyst Kathryn Pearson, PhD, spoke to the Retirees Association for our November Forum via Zoom. As she has done on previous occasions, she gave a riveting explanation of the November elections and the many trends indicated for the United States and Minnesota.
Pearson, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and highly sought-after election analyst, provided a comprehensive examination of the elections which she dramatically illustrated with slides.
The presidential election attracted a record turnout of more than 150 million voters or 66.4 percent of eligible voters. Pearson noted that incumbents typically win these elections; of 31 presidential elections, the incumbents have won 20. Thus, the election was notable both for the level of interest and the result.
Pearson characterized the election as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. She noted that the coronavirus was raging in the country and most people (56.6 percent) did not approve of the president’s handling of the crisis. Additionally, his overall approval rating never exceeded 50 percent throughout his presidency and was only 45 percent at the time of the election.
Despite the record turnout and winning some 74 million votes, Trump lost to Biden who received some 80 million votes—an Electoral College win of 306 to 232.
Professor Pearson noted that 94 percent of Democrats and 93 percent of Republicans voted for their candidate, but Biden won self-identified independents 54 to 40 percent. The racial breakdown was stark: Trump won white voters 58 to 41 and Biden won nonwhite voters 71 to 26. Biden’s largest advantage was among Black women (90-9) and Black men (79-19).
“Horse race” polling
Pearson noted that the polls had again gotten the election wrong. They underestimated support for Trump. She said the polling errors may simply reflect people’s unwillingness to talk with poll takers and the prevalence of partisan response, coupled with the unprecedented voting turn out.
Pearson encouraged people to not rely on “horse race” polling but rather to use polling to discern trends in the country and the policy preferences of people.
There was much more, including a robust discussion of the Electoral College and whether it should continue.
Our thanks to Professor Pearson for a master class on the 2020 elections.
—Bill Donohue, UMRA past president (2019–20)
Understanding the 2020 elections
Tue, November 24 2020, 12pm
Kathryn Pearson
Associate Professor
U of M Department of Political Science
Event to be held via Zoom.
The Retirees Association is pleased to welcome Kathryn Pearson, PhD, from the Department of Political Science as our forum speaker for November. An associate professor well known for her incisive analysis of elections at both the federal and state level, Dr. Pearson is an in-demand speaker. She will present her review of the presidential and other elections which will take place on November 3. We are lucky to have her and excited to hear from her again.
Please register to join this Zoom webinar on November 24 starting at 12 noon.
A specialist in American politics, Pearson will help us understand the outcome and implications of the 2020 elections. The campaigns have been tumultuous and laden with conflict never before seen in U.S. politics. While elections are often characterized as the most important election of our lifetimes, this one may actually fill the bill.
Diametrically opposed
The presidential candidates present dramatically different personalities, and their visions for our country are diametrically opposed. The contest reflects a division in the country that may affect how we continue to operate as a democracy.
Professor Pearson joined the University of Minnesota faculty in 2004 and is a distinguished scholar whose research focuses on the United States Congress, congressional elections, political parties, and women in politics. Her research has been published in The Journal of Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Legislative Studies Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, and Politics & Gender. Her book titled Party Discipline in the House of Representatives was published in 2015 by the University of Michigan Press. She is a recipient of the Morse Alumni Award for Outstanding Contributions to Undergraduate Education.
Professor Pearson received her doctorate from the University of California, Berkeley and her BA cum laude from Claremont McKenna College. This will be her third presidential election analysis for UMRA (following 2008 and 2012). Please join me in welcoming her back.
—Bill Donohue, past president
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