The following article summarizes the original event which is listed below the summary.
November election analysis was a tour de force
Before a packed house at the Campus Club, Kathryn Pearson, a U of M political science professor and frequent commentator on elections, presented a comprehensive review of the November midterms. She analyzed the national House and Senate races as well as the Minnesota statewide and statehouse elections, identifying themes and commenting on the rural-urban divide, increased turnout, and the record number of women candidates.
With dramatic illustration from her slides, she noted how the Democrats gained 39 seats in the U.S. House and will control the House beginning in January. Pearson characterized this as a Democratic “Blue Wave” election primarily because of the large number of seats that changed in the House. She discounted the Republican pick up of two seats in the Senate (for a 53–47 advantage) because of the party’s large structural advantage and the location of many of those seats in states the GOP won in 2016.
In Minnesota, the Democrats swept the statewide offices and took back the House by flipping 18 seats. (The state Senate was not up for election.) Four of the U.S. House seats in Minnesota changed hands, for a net result of no change in the makeup of the Minnesota delegation (5 Democrats, 3 Republicans). Pearson said the seats that did change hands demonstrate the state’s urban-rural divide, and further noted that Minnesota is likely to lose one house seat after the next census.
Women set records in 2018, accounting for 476 U.S. House primary candidates, 53 U.S. Senate candidates, and winning primaries at higher rates than men. Pearson said she expects more women candidates in the future because research shows women win elections at the same rate as men.
Pearson also presented a tour de force analysis of the midterm electorate, depicting voting behavior by turnout, gender, age, race, education, and region.
Finally, Pearson opined that the 2018 results are unlikely to be a good predictor of what will happen in 2020 because turnout is much heavier in presidential election years. Also, the upcoming election will be greatly influenced by events between now and then, the candidates who are selected, and their interplay with each other.
Pearson’s presentation was enthusiastically received and prompted many questions by UMRA members
—Bill Donohue, chair, Program Committee, and Kristine Mortensen, editor
Understanding the midterm election results
Tue, November 27 2018, 11:30am
West Wing Dining Room, Campus Club, Fourth Floor, Coffman Memorial Union
Our November luncheon speaker will be Kathryn Pearson, Ph.D., a University of Minnesota associate professor of political science and well-known political commentator. She will analyze the results of the November 6, 2018, elections, including contests for the U.S. Congress, Minnesota’s constitutional offices and state house, and other races in states across the nation. To accommodate a large turnout, the luncheon will be held in the spacious Campus Club West Wing dining room, making it easier to visit with friends and to appreciate Dr. Pearson’s presentation.
In the wake of the 2016 elections, this year’s midterm elections are expected to be competitive, particularly in Minnesota. We will vote on all our state constitutional officers and our two U.S. senators. Five of the eight U.S. congressional seats for Minnesota are considered close races and there is a special election for the state senate seat, formerly held by now Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, that will determine which party leads the upper house of the Legislature. There are more campaign ads, more reports of “dark money” spent on Minnesota elections, and more campaign visits to Minnesota. More women are seeking elected office than ever before. Polls show that more people consider this an important election and intend to vote. What do these facts and trends mean for the outcome of the election? Stay tuned.
As a specialist in American politics, Dr. Pearson is an expert who will help us understand the outcome. In 2016, UMRA was fortunate to receive her analysis of the presidential and Congressional elections. She is a distinguished scholar on the U.S. Congress, congressional elections, political parties, and women and politics, and a frequent commentator on elections and politics. She appears regularly in the national and Minnesota news and is known to many of us as a contributor to TPT’s public affairs panel on “Almanac.”
Pearson’s research has recently appeared in The Journal of Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Legislative Studies Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, Politics & Gender, and several book chapters and conference presentations. Her own book, Party Discipline in the House of Representations, published in 2015, is an extension of Pearson’s dissertation that won the APSA Carl Albert Dissertation Award for the best doctoral dissertation in legislative studies. Her next book, Gendered Partisanship in the House of Representatives, analyzes congresswomen’s pursuit of power in a partisan era.
Kathryn Pearson joined the University of Minnesota faculty in 2004 and is a recipient of the Horace T. Morse–University of Minnesota Alumni Association Award for Outstanding Contributions to Undergraduate Education. She is a valued University citizen not only as an honored educator but also in her service to the University, her college, and department on search and curriculum committees. She received her doctorate from the University of California, Berkeley and her B.A. cum laude from Claremont McKenna. Please join me in welcoming Professor Kathryn Pearson back to UMRA.
—Kathleen O’Brien, UMRA Board of Directors
Upcoming Events
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Picnic under the covered, open-air Como pavilion, gaze at the water, spy some birds, catch up with friends and former colleagues, and meet new members. We’ll have lunch with plenty of time for visiting and then compete in teams as we are challenged by our Quiz master(s)!
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