The following article summarizes the original event which is listed below the summary.

Normality was a winner in 2022 Midterm Elections

Tue, November 15 2022, 10:45am

At our November 2022 luncheon forum, a group of enthusiastic UMRA members gathered in the Campus Club to hear political scientist Kathryn Pearson discuss the midterm elections just a few days after they occurred. She offered several insights, including these:

·      Despite their shortcomings, predictions from opinion polls were generally more accurate than predictions from fundamentals (e.g., the economy, president’s ratings)

·      Democrats slightly outperformed the polls and did better than the president’s party usually does in midterm elections.

·      Normality was a winner. The elections were generally administered smoothly with few protests, and defeated candidates conceded.

·      Support for abortion rights outperformed Democratic candidates. Initiatives to restrict abortion were defeated in several states that did not strongly support Democratic candidates.

·      Polarization continued to progress throughout the country. In Minnesota, outstate areas including the Iron Range were more firmly red, while the Twin Cities remained firmly blue.

·      The Twin Cities suburbs made the difference in this year’s elections in Minnesota.  Formerly red suburbs have become more blue, delivering the Democrats the trifecta of the governor’s seat and both houses of the Legislature.

·      With split government at the federal level, there will be a contest between those in both parties who want to govern versus those who want to make a point and concede nothing.

—Ron Matross, UMRA president

Event recording
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What happened November 8? Understanding the 2022 midterm elections

Tue, November 15 2022, 10:45am
Kathryn Pearson, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
U of M Department of Political Science

Campus Club Fourth Floor
Coffman Memorial Union


What could be more timely than to have Kathryn Pearson as our presenter for the UMRA luncheon forum just one week after the 2022 midterm elections? With U.S. Senate and House races occurring across the country, as well as heated governor and state executive races, there will be a lot to unpack.

Please note the forum will be on Tuesday, November 15, a week earlier than usual, to avoid Thanksgiving week. Reservations and prepayment are due by November 5.

An associate professor in the University of Minnesota Department of Political Science, Pearson has earned a reputation as an UMRA presenter rock star for the illuminating election analyses she’s shared with us since her first UMRA presentation in 2008.

Pearson joined the U of M faculty in 2004 and is a distinguished scholar whose research focuses on the United States Congress, congressional elections, political parties, and women in politics. Her research has been published in The Journal of Politics, Perspectives on Politics, Legislative Studies Quarterly, Political Research Quarterly, and Politics & Gender. Her book titled Party Discipline in the House of Representatives was published in 2015 by the University of Michigan Press, and she has a new book in the works on gender and partisanship in the House of Representatives. She is a recipient of the Morse Alumni Award for Outstanding Contributions to Undergraduate Education.

This year’s elections may be the midterms, but these days state and even local elections have become national politics. I don’t know about you, but I will be hungry for a clear-eyed view of what happened on November 8 and what it may mean for Minnesota and the U.S. 

You can make your reservation and pay online, or email Diane Young at [email protected] if you prefer to pay by check.

Please join me in welcoming Kathryn Pearson at our November forum.   
—Jan Morlock, UMRA past president

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