The University of Minnesota Retirees Association (UMRA) hosted its largest post-COVID luncheon forum on November 19, featuring a presentation by Kathryn Pearson, associate professor of political science. The event, attended by more than 140 members and guests, reflected the high interest in the 2024 U.S. elections and Pearson’s respected insights. Pearson, a Morse Alumni Teaching Award recipient and former congressional aide, has a longstanding tradition of offering UMRA members her thoughtful election analysis.

Pearson described the 2024 elections as “atypical” and driven by voter discontent. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory was narrow but decisive, she said, with all seven swing states tipping his way. Trump secured 50 percent [as of November 20] of the popular vote, but Pearson questioned whether this justified his claim of a mandate. The election flipped the Senate to a 53-47 Republican majority and gave Republicans a slim lead in the House. She characterized the election as a referendum on President Biden, whose 38 percent approval rating and perceived economic failings weighed heavily on the Democratic ticket. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, stepping in late as the Democratic nominee, struggled to distance herself from Biden’s unpopularity. Pearson emphasized that 61 percent of voters believed the country was on the wrong track, underscoring the electorate's appetite for change. Globally, no incumbent leaders have won re-election since COVID.

The diploma divide

Key voter trends highlighted by Pearson included the widening urban-rural divide, the deepening of the “diploma divide,” and a surprising shift of younger men and Latino voters toward Trump. She debunked reports of a growing gender gap, explaining that women’s preference for Democrats has remained consistent since the 1980s. Abortion, a decisive issue in 2022, played a smaller role in this election.

“It is disheartening that Trump’s flaws did not matter, but this was a change election,” Pearson said. “One of the candidates ran a better campaign, and that candidate did not win.”

She also provided insights into Minnesota's elections. While the state leaned Democratic, voting for Harris by a four percent margin, Republican gains in Greater Minnesota and Democratic gains in Minneapolis were notable. The Minnesota Legislature is now split, with the House evenly divided (67–67) and the Senate under narrow Democratic control (34–33).

The Q&A session covered a range of topics, from voter suppression and polling accuracy to the implications of a Trump presidency. As to the role played by the economy, Pearson said “the Democrats are not doing as well as they used to in talking to voters about jobs.” But she also noted that “voting on the economy is different from understanding the president’s role in the economy.” 

Pearson expressed concerns about the future of democracy but urged patience, noting that much remains to be seen. One positive note: a welcome return to “normalcy,” with Vice President Harris insisting, when she conceded the election, that there will be a peaceful transition of power. When asked whether the U.S. will ever elect a female president, Pearson responded with an emphatic “Yes!” But she cautioned that recent losses by women candidates may steer Democrats toward moderate male nominees in future elections.

The high attendance and robust discussion underscored UMRA members’ engagement with pressing political issues, making the event a standout in this year’s luncheon forum series.

—Text was generated by ChatGPT-4o, Open AI, based on notes from UMRA member Nevin Young, and edited for clarity and length