The following article summarizes the original event which is listed below the summary.
An atypical election driven by voter discontent
The University of Minnesota Retirees Association (UMRA) hosted its largest post-COVID luncheon forum on November 19, featuring a presentation by Kathryn Pearson, associate professor of political science. The event, attended by more than 140 members and guests, reflected the high interest in the 2024 U.S. elections and Pearson’s respected insights. Pearson, a Morse Alumni Teaching Award recipient and former congressional aide, has a longstanding tradition of offering UMRA members her thoughtful election analysis.
Pearson described the 2024 elections as “atypical” and driven by voter discontent. President-elect Donald Trump’s victory was narrow but decisive, she said, with all seven swing states tipping his way. Trump secured 50 percent [as of November 20] of the popular vote, but Pearson questioned whether this justified his claim of a mandate. The election flipped the Senate to a 53-47 Republican majority and gave Republicans a slim lead in the House. She characterized the election as a referendum on President Biden, whose 38 percent approval rating and perceived economic failings weighed heavily on the Democratic ticket.
Vice President Kamala Harris, stepping in late as the Democratic nominee, struggled to distance herself from Biden’s unpopularity. Pearson emphasized that 61 percent of voters believed the country was on the wrong track, underscoring the electorate's appetite for change. Globally, no incumbent leaders have won re-election since COVID.
The diploma divide
Key voter trends highlighted by Pearson included the widening urban-rural divide, the deepening of the “diploma divide,” and a surprising shift of younger men and Latino voters toward Trump. She debunked reports of a growing gender gap, explaining that women’s preference for Democrats has remained consistent since the 1980s. Abortion, a decisive issue in 2022, played a smaller role in this election.
“It is disheartening that Trump’s flaws did not matter, but this was a change election,” Pearson said. “One of the candidates ran a better campaign, and that candidate did not win.”
She also provided insights into Minnesota's elections. While the state leaned Democratic, voting for Harris by a four percent margin, Republican gains in Greater Minnesota and Democratic gains in Minneapolis were notable. The Minnesota Legislature is now split, with the House evenly divided (67–67) and the Senate under narrow Democratic control (34–33).
The Q&A session covered a range of topics, from voter suppression and polling accuracy to the implications of a Trump presidency. As to the role played by the economy, Pearson said “the Democrats are not doing as well as they used to in talking to voters about jobs.” But she also noted that “voting on the economy is different from understanding the president’s role in the economy.”
Pearson expressed concerns about the future of democracy but urged patience, noting that much remains to be seen. One positive note: a welcome return to “normalcy,” with Vice President Harris insisting, when she conceded the election, that there will be a peaceful transition of power. When asked whether the U.S. will ever elect a female president, Pearson responded with an emphatic “Yes!” But she cautioned that recent losses by women candidates may steer Democrats toward moderate male nominees in future elections.
The high attendance and robust discussion underscored UMRA members’ engagement with pressing political issues, making the event a standout in this year’s luncheon forum series.
—Text was generated by ChatGPT-4o, Open AI, based on notes from UMRA member Nevin Young, and edited for clarity and length
Making sense of the 2024 U.S. elections
Tue, November 19, 2024, at 11am
Kathyrn Pearson
Associate professor of political science
U of M College of Liberal Arts
Midland Hills
The 2024 election season has been long and intense. The U. S. presidential race has been front and center in our minds and the media, but the outcome of the congressional elections, plus state races across the country, could tip the balance of power. It is a particularly critical year, and controversy over the results is likely.
To help us digest whatever happens, UMRA is extremely honored that one of Minnesota’s foremost election analysts, U of M political scientist Kathryn Pearson, will join us to provide her insightful analysis of this year’s elections as the guest speaker for UMRA’s luncheon forum on Tuesday, November 19, at Midland Hills Country Club in Roseville.
Kathryn Pearson, PhD, is an associate professor of political science in the U’s College of Liberal Arts. She focuses on American politics, including Congress, elections, political parties, and gender bias. She earned her doctorate from the University of California, Berkeley; worked on Capitol Hill as a legislative assistant for two members of Congress; was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution; and is a recipient of the Morse-Alumni Award for Outstanding Contributions to Undergraduate Education at the U of M.
Pearson has authored many articles, and a book titled Party Discipline in the House of Representatives, published by the University of Michigan Press. She is currently working on a new book project, Gendered Partisanship in the House of Representatives, analyzing congresswomen's pursuit of power in a partisan era.
If you don’t recognize her name, you will surely recognize her voice. Pearson is a frequent guest on Minnesota Public Radio and the Twin Cities PBS weekly news and public affairs program Almanac, as well as other news media. She has spoken to UMRA several times and always provides valuable perspective. Her insights into not just what things happened but why they happened will help us understand what is certain to be an extremely significant election.
Long-time UMRA members know that Pearson is always a popular speaker, so make your reservation soon for UMRA’s luncheon forum on Tuesday, November 19, at Midland Hills. And come prepared with questions on all things surrounding the 2024 elections.
—Julie Sweitzer, UMRA president
Upcoming Events
Morris Campus Retirees will host a Zoom meeting. Morris Campus Retirees are part of the University of Minnesota Retiree Association (UMRA). The group has already held two meetings in its first year of existence.
Peter Moe, retired Minnesota Landscape Arboretum director and UMRA member, will be leading a hiking tour of the Arboretum again this year. The amazing tulip display was at its peak for our hike last year, and we will undoubtedly enjoy seeing many spring-blooming trees, shrubs, wildflowers, and perennials. Plan to stay for lunch together (optional) after the hike at the Rootstock café in the Oswald Visitor Center.
UMRA’s Family History Interest Group will meet via Zoom on Wednesday, May 7, for an open discussion of ideas, insights, questions, and issues related to family history, and to discuss topics for next year’s meetings.
We will revisit the University of Minnesota Archives, with its major holdings largely tucked away in two huge underground caverns along the Mississippi River under the West Bank campus, holds the essential records of our University of Minnesota’s past. University Archivist Erik Moore will interpret the holdings and bring out a sampling of what it holds. We will also get a tour of the caverns (Minnesota Library Access Center), revealing where these precious materials are housed, including the original tapes of KUOM, now Radio K.
Cancer has touched all of us. If you are willing to share your cancer journey or talk about your experience with a person you have supported, please consider attending the May 8 UMRA breakfast gathering at The Original Pancake House in Roseville.
You are cordially invited to this presentation by Andy Whitman, Professor, Attorney, Volunteer Financial Planner. He will discuss investments for your grandchildren.
The UMRA Photo Club is having a photo shoot at the Como Park Conservatory in St. Paul on Tuesday, May 13.
Financial scams are a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, and learning how to spot and avoid scams is more important than ever to your financial health. For UMRA’s May workshop, Jay Haapala, leader of AARP’s Fraud Watch Network, will share with us the latest criminal trends in scamming and how to avoid them.
The UMRA Book Club will discuss The Frozen River by Ariel Lawhon when it meets via Zoom on May 16.
.Wood Lake Nature Center is a peaceful 150-acre cattail marsh, woodland, and restored prairie that is a haven for migrating birds and waterfowl. This UMRA hike is a great opportunity for those who would like a shorter, easier hike. The trails are dirt, grass, and woodchip, with some bridges and a bit of paved trails. Only a couple small hills to navigate, the park is mostly flat.
University of Minnesota Regent Penny Wheeler, MD, will be the featured guest for the UMRA luncheon forum on May 20. In place of the usual speech format for our forums, Regent Wheeler will be interviewed by UMRA member and liaison to the Board of Regents John Finnegan, professor and dean emeritus of the U of M School of Public Health.
I, Claudius by English writer Robert Graves, published in 1934, will be up for discussion when UMRA's Fourth Friday Book Club meets via Zoom on May 23.
The UMRA Book Club will discuss The Great River by Boyce Upton when it meets via Zoom on June 20.
Learn about writing memoirs, technology for seniors, campus architecture, and more at the fourth annual Age-Friendly University Day to be held in the McNamara Alumni Center on the Twin Cities campus in Minneapolis on Monday, June 23.
Catch up with friends and former colleagues, meet new UMRA members, enjoy delicious food, and participate in the third annual UMRA Summer Social Quiz at the Como Lakeside Pavilion in St. Paul on Wednesday, June 25.